Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
